Human pressures on planetary boundaries, including climate change, result from by-products of society’s metabolism. The trajectory of this metabolism emerges from coevolution of society’s biophysical, economic, political and social dynamics. Because these unfold on different timescales and involve delays, thresholds and feedbacks, overall system behaviour depends strongly on their interactions and timing. 

Integrated assessment models struggle to accommodate this complexity and, in particular, the potential for social tipping dynamics to transform sociometabolism fast enough to steer the system to a safe operating space. In this talk I will present a system dynamics model that couples stylized social, political, investment, sociometabolic and climatic dynamics. 

We endogenously model economic growth (or degrowth), technological learning, carbon price policy adjustment, and social tipping in both public support for climate action and investor behaviour. Scenarios show a rich range of behaviours, from carbon lock-in causing climate catastrophe and socioeconomic collapse to rapid decarbonisation with sustained economic growth. I will discuss ongoing work that aims to identify parametric levers that can steer the system to a safe landing on the required time scale.

Moderation: Lorenzo Silvestri

Wegener Center Common Space with Andrew Ringsmuth

11.12.2025, 11:00 - 12:00

Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change

[0056010002] SR 56.11, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz, 1.OG