Limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, yet under current policies and alternative near-term trajectories, exceedance of 1.5°C is now widely assessed as unavoidable.
UNEP’s Limiting Overshoot Spotlight Report examines the implications of entering an era of 1.5°C overshoot and the choices that remain available.
Overshoot is a dynamic pathway encompassing the exceedance of 1.5°C, peak warming and subsequent temperature decline. The report explores the risks and impacts associated with higher levels of warming, the mitigation pathways needed to limit peak warming and enable temperatures to decline, and how adaptation and development approaches must respond to changing conditions along an overshoot, peak and decline pathway.
The evidence consistently indicates that higher peak warming and longer durations of exceedance are associated with greater risks for people and nature. Today’s decisions are therefore critical: the lower the peak warming reached, the lower the risks faced by people, societies, economies and ecosystems; and the shorter the duration of overshoot, the lower the probability of crossing irreversible thresholds and adaptation limits. The central message is clear: mitigation and adaptation must advance together. Overshoot is not an argument for resignation, but rather for urgency to action.
