Ein ForscherInnen-Team der IIASA beschreibt Szenarien zur Einhaltung des 1,5°-Ziels

Die Netto-Emissionen müssten in der Zeit zwischen 2055-2075 auf Null zurückgehen, wenn das Ziel erreicht werden soll.

Road Construction sign asking: "How to limit global warming below 1.5C"

Quelle: Bearbeitung: CCCA.

Der folgende Abstract stammt aus der Veröffentlichung der Ergebnisse in "Nature Climate Change":

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

Zum Artikel "Scenarios towards limiting the global mean temperature increase below 1.5°C"